We think this article is focused both on the content and process of strategy. We believe that both aspects are important and this article does a good job of going over both. It gives necessary attention to both the steps involved in strategy and the contents that are so key to the topic. We liked this article because we thought it offered some very practical advice. The article was informative and interesting. This article relates to the other article, ‘Strategic Intent’ in how it needs to be flexible for various situations that may occur.
Our favorite quote was “Underestimating uncertainty can lead to strategies that neither defend against the threats nor take advantage of the opportunities that higher levels of uncertainty may provide.” This quote is informational because it talks about how to be defensive in the business setting. This article was clear on the topic of strategy having uncertainty and it is displayed through this quote.
We I believe this article is taking more of an intuitive approach rather than a logical argument because of the way it makes observations, and talks about what companies are doing rather than telling everyone how things should be done.
Making systematically sound strategic decisions under uncertainty requires a different approach- one that avoids this dangerous binary view. This article was beneficial in helping us learn how to do that. This article is focused on the process of learning strategy. It talks about a new approach, but does that in a professional way.
Don’t pick the most likely scenario and build a model based on that because it is very dangerous and risky. Even the most uncertain business environments contain a lot of strategically relevant information. No approach can make the challenges of uncertainty go away. These are all things that we learned from that article and we feel they will be beneficial to our future in business.
4 Outline:
1. What makes a good strategy in uncertain scenarios
a. Different strategies
2. Four levels of uncertainty
a. A clear-enough future
b. Alternate futures
c. A range of futures
d. True ambiguity
3. Tailoring strategic analysis to the four levels of uncertainty
a. Level 1
b. Level 2
c. Level 3
d. Level 4
4. Postures and moves
a. Strategic posture
b. A portfolio of actions
5. What’s in a portfolio of actions
a. Strategy in level 1’s clear-enough future
b. Strategy in level 2’s alternate futures
c. Strategy in level 3’s range of futures
d. Strategy in level 4’s true ambiguity
6. A new approach to uncertainty